Why does it seem that every time the NFL makes a new rule, the Vikings are one of the teams that are not helped by it? I don’t really think there is some kind of crazy conspiracy against Minnesota sports. But with how the new kickoff rule is affecting us, it still seems like someone is out to get us.
A few weeks ago, I wrote an article saying that the Vikings need to get a kickoff specialist. People were split about 50-50 on the idea. Most of the opposition to it was based on the fact that the new NFL rule putting kickoffs at the 35 (instead of the 30) would make it a lot easier for Longwell to get touchbacks.
With every team having finished four preseason games, there are enough stats with the new rule to see what kind of effect it is having.
The stats are uglier than Aaron Rodgers championship belt celebration.
Percentage of touchbacks per kickoff (only including kickers with more than 10 kickoffs)
|
|
2010 regular season |
2011 preseason |
Difference |
|
Average of top 10 |
31.70% |
67.70% |
38.00% |
|
Average of 12-20 |
17.57% |
30.87% |
13.50% |
|
Average of 20-27 |
9.52% |
17.75% |
8.23% |
|
Longwell |
4.60% |
12.30% |
7.70% |
Don’t try to tell me the rule affects everyone equally after looking at this chart.
The stats are showing that the extra five yards are giving the best kickers the little boost they needed to send the ball into or past the end zone nearly every time. The rest of the kickers also benefit, but not nearly as much. This is a clear case of the rich getting richer and the poor staying poor. Unfortunately, the Vikings are one of the teams that are staying poor with regards to touchbacks.
Really, how hard would it be to find a person who can do better kickoffs than Longwell? There are over 100 division 1 college teams. Out of all those teams you would think that it would be possible to find a kicker who is significantly better than Longwell at kickoffs. If the Vikings wanted to find a guy who would be an improvement in kickoffs, they would be able to do so.
The Vikings have needed to get a kickoff specialist for a while and this new rule is only making that need greater.
Another measure you should consider is average starting position after a kickoff… that would be a stronger measure of how effective longwell is…
touchbacks are nice – but not everything – their primary value is that they eliminate the long return… but they also eliminate opportunity to force turnovers as well…