Chris Johnson’s New Contract Might Make It A Pain to Re-Sign Peterson.

According to espn.com the Titans offered to make Johnson the highest paid runningback in the NFL. Surprisingly, he is refusing their offer. Apparently, Johnson wants a lot more than just being the highest paid runningback, he wants to be one of the best paid players in the league. Reports say that he is trying to get somewhere in the 13 million per year range. If he gets the deal he wants it will set a new standard for how much the top runningbacks get paid. A standard that will make it a lot harder to keep Peterson.

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Vikings Fantasy Football Preview

Even though it’s possible that the Vikings won’t have a winning record this season, it’s definitely possible to get your fantasy team above .500. Of course, it’s always fun to have a Vikings player or two on your fantasy team to cheer for. That way even if they are losing you can still cheer for Peterson to get more yards or for Harvin to get another touchdown. Having a few decent fantasy teams certainly made last season more bearable for me at least.

Early in the offseason, it looked like Peterson could possibly be the only Viking worth drafting. With the addition of McNabb, the fantasy football value of quite a few Vikings players has risen rapidly. I’m going to look at the fantasy prospects of most of the Vikings’ players.

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My Rules For Fantasy Football Drafting

Just like in real football, the best way to build your fantasy team is through the draft. The odds of picking up a surprise player like Vick or Arian Foster are rather slim. While it is always good to try and pick up breakout players off of free agency, it isn’t something you should rely on. A good draft is what will set up you team for success. These following rules are what I try to do when I’m drafting, and so far this year it has worked very well.

  • Come with a planHow you draft will determine how good (or bad) your season it is. Drafting your team without a plan will set your team up for defeat. The most important thing to do is to have a list ranking the players in each position by who you would draft first. Some people like to combine this into one master list, but I prefer to keep all the position separate.It’s best to look through at least 3-4 different ranking sites to get an idea of where players are being put. Combine them as you want to, but make sure you like it. For example, if you rank Calvin Johnson over Andre, be ready to take CJ over AJ. Get the rankings set and don’t change your mind once the drafting starts.

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Observations From Last Nights Game

After a whole 7 months without any Vikings football, it was very exciting to finally see them on the field again, even if the game didn’t mean a whole lot. Here are a few observations I had from last night’s game:

  • The game was a lot closer than the score suggests. For the time both teams’ 1st string players were on the field the score remained 0-0. All the final score of 3-14 means is that their 2nd and 3rd string players were better than ours. Though that isn’t good, it doesn’t mean a whole lot.

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Starting Field Position Is Very Important (The Vikings Need To Get A Kick-Off Specialist)

The further your opponent is from the end-zone, the less likely it is that they will score. This seems like a fairly straightforward concept, but it’s something the Vikings front office (and most of the NFL)  just doesn’t seem to get.

Since the invention of football, kickers have almost always done both the field goals and the kickoffs. There isn’t much of a difference between doing a kick-off or a field goal. This works out well for most teams as many kickers can boot the football pretty far. However, there are cases where a kicker can have very good accuracy, but can’t kick it very far.

The previous sentence describes our own Ryan Longwell very well. His accuracy is near perfect, but he just doesn’t do a very good job at kickoffs. Last season the Vikings ranked dead last in the league in kickoffs. Their opponents average starting position off a kickoff was at the 30 yard line, whereas the top-ranked Falcons kept there opponents to the 22 yard line. Eight yards might not seem like much, but it makes a big difference.

Most teams balk at the idea of signing someone simply to do the kick-offs. But as the following stats will show, this is something they (especially the Vikings) seriously need to consider.

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Passer Rating Differential (PRD) And The Vikings

A while back, the writers at coldhardfootballfacts.com came up with a stat called Passer Rating Differential, which they are now calling “the mother stat in all football analysis.” Passer Rating Differential is a rather simple stat; it’s a team’s offensive passer rating minus its defensive passer rating. Their theory is that the best teams are the ones that dominate the passing game, both on offense and defense. Based on the research they did, the guys at CHFF concluded that Passer Rating Differential has a very direct correlation to whether or not a team is successful. Here are a few of their findings:

  • Of the 71 NFL champions (counting the pre-Superbowl era), 69 of them had positive passer rating differentials. The two exceptions are the 1957 Lions and the 2007 Giants and both teams had massive turnarounds in the playoffs where they both had very good Passer Rating Differentials.
  • On average, NFL champions were +27.41 in Passer Rating Differential.
  • The average NFL champion ranked 3.4 in the league for Passer Rating Differential.

Some of the other stuff CHFF has written about Passer Rating Differential can be seen here and here. They really do make a very convincing case for this being one of the most important football stats. After reading about this, I was curious about what the passer rating Differentials were for the Vikings. Since I couldn’t find these stats on the internet (and had way too much free time), I went and calculated the Offensive Passer Rating, Defensive Passer Rating, and Passer Rating differential for every Vikings team from 1661 through 2010. What I found was very interesting.

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Should Ponder Start or Sit?

Note: This was written before McNabb joined the Vikings.

To start or not to start, that is the question:
Whether ’tis nobler in the mind to wait
To learn and prepare
Or to take arms against a sea of doubters
And by playing prove them wrong

Usually people find Shakespeare to be rather confusing. However, I think it is quite possible that he is talking about some dude called Christian Ponder (well, I did change a few words here and there). Shortly after drafting him, Frazier seemed to make it pretty clear that he thought starting Ponder on week one would be the most ideal option. However, because of the prolonged lockout, in recent statements he has appeared to have backed out of this stance and is now considering bringing in a veteran quarterback to mentor Ponder.

Whether a rookie quarterback benefits more from starting right away or backing up a veteran qb is a very interesting question. It’s a decision the Vikings will be forced to make in the near future if the season does start on time. To figure out if it is a good idea to start Ponder right away, I decided to take a look at all the quarterbacks who had ever won a Superbowl and see how their careers started. The stats from this search were very interesting.

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